The impact of bots on opinions in social networks

The impact of bots on opinions in social networks. Social networks have given us the ability to spread messages and influence large populations very easily. Malicious actors can take advantage of social networks to manipulate opinions using artificial accounts, or bots. It is suspected that the 2016 U.S. presidential election was the victim of such social network interference, potentially by foreign actors. Foreign influence bots are also suspected of having attacked European elections. Multiple research studies confirm the bots main action was the sharing of politically polarized content in an effort to shift opinions.  The potential threat to election security from social networks has become a concern for governments around the world.

In the U.S., Members of Congress have not been satisfied with the response of major social networks and have asked them to take actions to prevent future interference in the U.S. democratic process by foreign actors. In response, major social media companies have taken serious steps. Facebook has identified several pages and accounts tied to foreign actors and Twitter suspended over 70 million bot accounts.

Despite all of the efforts taken to counter the threat posed by bots, one important question remains unanswered: how many people were impacted by these influence campaigns? More generally, how can we quantify the effect of bots on the opinions of users in a social network? Answering this question would allow one to assess the potential threat of an influence campaign. Also, it would allow one to test the efficacy of different responses to the threat. Studies have looked at the volume of content produced by bots and their social network reach during the 2016 election. However, this data alone does not indicate the effectiveness of the bots in shifting opinions.

The challenge is we do not know what would have happened if the bots had not been there. Such a counterfactual analysis is only possible if there is a model which can predict the opinions of users in the presence or absence of bots. For a model to be useful in assessing the impact of bots, it must be validated on real social network data. Once validated, an opinion model can then be used to assess the impact of different groups of bots.

The Impact of Bots on Opinions in Social Networks
Visualization of the network of Twitter users discussing the second 2016 presidential debate. Node sizes are proportional to their follower-count in the network and node colors indicate their tweet based opinion. Nodes favoring Trump are red and nodes favoring Clinton are blue.

A recent research report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) presented a method to quantify the impact of bots on the opinions of users in a social network. MIT focused the analysis on a network of Twitter users discussing the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The key strategy used was to find a model for opinion dynamics in a social network. Firstly, MIT validated the model by showing that the user opinions predicted by the model align with the opinions of these users’ based on their social media posts. Secondly, MIT identified bots in the network using a developed and customised algorithm. Thirdly, MIT used the opinion model to calculate how the opinions shift when they removed the bots from the network.

MIT discovered that a small number of bots have a disproportionate impact on the network opinions, and this impact is primarily due to their elevated activity levels. In the dataset, MIT found that the bots which supported Clinton caused a bigger shift in opinions than the bots which supported Trump, even though there are more Trump bots in the network.

How the advertising capabilities of social networks have created a Digital Influence Machine

The Digital Influence Machine. In light of how the advertising capabilities of Facebook, Twitter and other social networks have been used in recent political elections across the world. A new report, argues that today’s digital advertising infrastructure creates disturbing new opportunities for political manipulation and other forms of anti-democratic strategic communication. As ad platforms, web publishers, and other intermediaries have developed an infrastructure of data collection and targeting capacities that the report calls the Digital Influence Machine (DIM).

The DIM incorporates a set of overlapping technologies for surveillance, targeting, testing, and automated decision-making designed to make advertising – from the commercial to the political more powerful and efficient. The report claims the DIM can identify and target weak points where groups and individuals are most vulnerable to strategic influence and is a form of information warfare.

Digital Influence Machine

Unlike campaigns of even a decade ago, data-driven advertising allows political actors to zero in on those believed to be the most receptive and pivotal audiences for very specific messages while also helping to minimize the risk of political blowback by limiting their visibility to those who might react negatively.

The various technologies and entities of the DIM cohere around three interlocking communication capacities:

  • To use sprawling systems of consumer monitoring to develop detailed consumer profiles
  • To target customised audiences with strategic messaging across devices, channels, and contexts
  • To automate and optimise tactical elements of influence campaigns, leveraging consumer data and real-time feedback to test and tweak key variables including the composition of target publics and the timing, placement, and content of ad messages

The social influence of the DIM, like all technological systems, is also largely a product of the political, economic, and social context in which it developed. The report analysed three key shifts in the US media and political landscape that contextualise the use of the DIM to manipulate political activity:

  • The decline of professional journalism
  • The expansion of financial resources devoted to political influence
  • The growing sophistication of targeted political mobilization in a regulatory environment with little democratic accountability

The report documented three distinct strategies that political actors currently use to weaponise the DIM:

  • Mobilize supporters through identity threats
  • Divide an opponent’s coalition
  • Leverage influence techniques informed by behavioral science

Despite this range of techniques, weaponised political ad targeting will rarely, if ever, be effective in changing individuals’ deeply-held beliefs. Instead, the goals of weaponised DIM campaigns will be to amplify existing resentments and anxieties, raise the emotional stakes of particular issues or foreground some concerns at the expense of others, stir distrust among potential coalition partners, and subtly influence decisions about political behaviors (like whether to go vote or attend a protest). In close elections, if these tactics offer even marginal advantages, groups willing to engage in ethically dubious machinations may reap significant benefits.

The report suggested that key points of intervention for mitigating harms are the technical structures, institutional policies, and legal regulations of the DIM. One significant further step companies could take would be to categorically refuse to work with dark money groups. Platforms could also limit weaponisation by requiring explicit, non-coercive user consent for viewing any political ads that are part of a split-testing experiment. Future ethical guidelines for political advertising could be developed in collaboration with independent committees representing diverse communities and stakeholders. All of these possible steps have benefits, risks, and costs, and should be thoroughly and seriously considered by corporations, regulators, and civil society.

The report concluded that whatever the future of online ad regulation, the consideration of political ads will only be one component in a larger effort to combat disinformation and manipulation. Without values like fairness, justice, and human dignity guiding the development of the DIM and a commitment to transparency and accountability underlying its deployment, such systems are antithetical to the principles of democracy.

 

 

Andy Black Associates has been awarded and officially listed as a G-Cloud 10 (G10) cloud service provider for UK government

Andy Black Associates has been awarded and officially listed as a G-Cloud 10 (G10) cloud hosting service provider for its suite of digital services for Parish Councils and local government. G10 services will become available on the Digital Marketplace on 2nd July 2018.

The digital transformation of Parish Councils has begun. Parish Councils originated in medieval times and are the first level of government for UK citizens. Andy Black Associates provide Parish Councils with a low-cost, easy-to-use and customisable hosted WordPress website template, specifically designed for Parish Councils, that will enable them to improve engagement with the local community, comply with the 2015 Transparency Code and provide a better service for parishioners. The hosted website is also fully responsive when viewed on a mobile device.

The hosted cloud software-as-a-service for Parish Councils includes monthly backups, data storage, data security, support and access to a streamed video e-learning library that enables Parish Council members to easily learn how to customise their sites, enabling value added services such as how to add the minutes of meetings, how to create an email newsletter, how to integrate social media or how to add YouTube content.

The service was developed and iterated over the last year by collaborating with parish clerks, parish councillors and local government officers and is currently being rolled out by the Hereford Association of Local Councils, where over 50 Parish Councils have already adopted the cloud service. Some “early adopters” in this group are starting to develop their Parish Council websites into community hubs.

Andy Black Associates awarded G-Cloud 10 provider for UK government.
Google Maps integration allows virtual walk-throughs of building applications

Lynda Wilcox, the Chief Executive of Hereford Association of Local Councils, said “The Parish Councils in Hereford using the service have already noticed an increase in the number of parishioners attending meetings, more engagement with older parishioners by email and also more younger parishioners turning up at meetings wanting to get involved in local democracy.”

Mark Millmore, ABA Director of Hosted Services, said “Our low-cost and easy-to-use hosted website template and hosted cloud service can be easily rolled out to any of the 8,356 Parish Councils in England and G-Cloud will be an important route for us to reach these government organisations.

Our software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model will enable Parish Councils to improve their service to the local community and allow significant savings from the Central Government budget allocated to the National Association of Local Councils (NALC’s) and its 38 independent County Associations for Transparency Code compliance for each of the 8,356 Parish Councils under their administration.

The ABA pricing matrix for Parish Council websites being offered to NALC and to each of the 38 independent County Associations is a one-off fee of £500 each for 1-10 websites, £400 each for 11-30 websites, £300 each for 31-50 websites, £250 each for 50+ websites and £200 each for 100+ websites, after the first year there is a £100 annual fee for each website that covers support, maintenance updates and backups. Our low-cost and easy-to-use cloud service will help Parish Councils comply with the Transparency Code and provide a better service to the local community.

Take a look at some examples of our Parish Council websites:

As such, we are delighted to have been awarded a place on the G10 Agreement, the latest iteration of G-Cloud, and can’t wait to take advantage of the many opportunities that the initiative offers for both suppliers and government bodies.”

Mark Millmore can be contacted on 07891108154 for further information.

G-Cloud is a Crown Commercial Service (CCS) initiative to encourage public sector adoption of cloud services by connecting government organisations with providers of all sizes in a secure and open environment. The CCS acts on behalf of the Crown to drive savings for the taxpayer and improve the quality of commercial and procurement activity across both local and central government.

To qualify for inclusion in G10, organisations need to prove that they are a suitable and secure potential partner for government technology projects. They must be prepared to list the capabilities of their products, along with indicative pricing. As a result, G10 provides public sector bodies with an open, secure and transparent digital marketplace in which to search for cloud solutions.

It also provides new business opportunities to businesses that pass the checks required to qualify for G10 status. Crown Commercial Service suppliers are given an opportunity to advertise their services to a wide range of interested public sector bodies in a competitive environment. Since it became available in 2012, UK government organisations have placed billions of pounds’ worth of orders through the service with most orders being won by SME’s.

Mueller & Russian meddling – an inconvenient truth in the age of digital marketing

Mueller, Russian meddling and digital marketing

This fascinating and informative article is by the blogger Moon of Alabama.

“Last week the U.S. Justice Department indicted the Russian Internet Research Agency on some dubious legal grounds. It covers thirteen Russian people and three Russian legal entities. The main count of the indictment is an alleged “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”.

The published indictment gives support to Moon of Alabama’s long-held belief that there was no “Russian influence” campaign during the U.S. election. What is described and denounced as such was instead a commercial marketing scheme which ran click-bait websites to generate advertisement revenue and created online crowds around virtual persona to promote whatever its commercial customers wanted to promote. The size of the operation was tiny when compared to the hundreds of millions in campaign expenditures. It had no influence on the election outcome.

The indictment is fodder for the public to prove that the Mueller investigation is “doing something”. It distracts from further questioning the origin of the Steele dossier. It is full of unproven assertions and assumptions. It is a sham in that none of the Russian persons or companies indicted will ever come in front of a U.S. court. That is bad because the indictment is built on the theory of a new crime which, unless a court throws it out, can be used to incriminate other people in other cases and might even apply to this blog. The latter part of this post will refer to that.

In the early 1990s, some dude in St.Petersburg made a good business selling hot dogs. He opened a colourful restaurant. Local celebrities and politicians were invited to gain notoriety while the restaurant served cheap food at too high prices. It was a good business. A few years later he moved to Moscow and gained contracts to cater to schools and to the military. The food he served was still substandard.

But catering bad food as school lunches gave him, by chance, the idea for a new business:

Parents were soon up in arms. Their children wouldn’t eat the food, saying it smelled rotten.
As the bad publicity mounted, Mr Prigozhin’s company, Concord Catering, launched a counterattack, a former colleague said. He hired young men and women to overwhelm the internet with comments and blog posts praising the food and dismissing the parents’ protests.

“In five minutes, pages were drowning in comments,” said Andrei Ilin, whose website serves as a discussion board about public schools. “And all the trolls were supporting Concord.”

The trick worked beyond expectations. Prigozhin had found a new business. He hired some IT staff and low paid temps to populate various message boards, social networks and the general internet with whatever his customers asked him for.

Have you a bad online reputation? Prigozhin can help. His internet company will fill the net with positive stories and remarks about you. Your old and bad reputation will be drowned by the new and good one. Want to promote a product or service? Prigozhin’s online marketeers can address the right crowds.

 

To achieve those results the few temps who worked on such projects needed to multiply their online personalities. It is better to have fifty people vouch for you online than just five. No one cares if these are real people or just virtual ones. The internet makes it easy to create such sock-puppets. The virtual crowd can then be used to push personalities, products or political opinions. Such schemes are nothing new or special. Every decent “western” public relations and marketing company will offer a similar service and has done so for years.

While it is relatively easy to have sock-puppets swamp the comment threads of such sites as this blog, it is more difficult to have a real effect on social networks. These depend on multiplier effects. To gain many real “likes”, “re-tweets” or “followers” an online persona needs a certain history and reputation. Real people need to feel attached to it. It takes some time and effort to build such a multiplier personality, be it real or virtual.

At some point, Prigozhin, or whoever by then owned the internet marketing company, decided to expand into the lucrative English speaking market. This would require to build many English language online persona and to give those some history and time to gain crowds of followers and a credible reputation. The company sent a few of its staff to the U.S. to gain some impressions, pictures and experience of the surroundings. They would later use these to impersonate as U.S. locals. It was a medium size, long-term investment of maybe a hundred-thousand bucks over two or three years.

The U.S. election provided an excellent environment to build reputable online persona with large followings of people with discriminable mindsets. The political affinity was not important. The personalities only had to be very engaged and stick to their issue – be it left or right or whatever. The sole point was to gain as many followers as possible who could be segmented along social-political lines and marketed to the companies customers.

Again – there is nothing new to this. It is something hundreds, if not thousands of companies are doing as their daily business. The Russian company hoped to enter the business with a cost advantage. Even its mid-ranking managers were paid as little as $1,200 per month. The students and other temporary workers who would ‘work’ the virtual personas as puppeteers would earn even less. Any U.S. company in a similar business would have higher costs.

In parallel to building virtual online persona the company also built some click-bait websites and groups and promoted these through mini Facebook advertisements. These were the “Russian influence ads” on Facebook the U.S. media were so enraged about. They included the promotion of a Facebook page about cute puppies. Back in October, we described how those “Russian influence” ads (most of which were shown after the election or were not seen at all) were simply part of a commercial scheme:

The pages described and the ads leading to them are typical click-bait, not part of a political influence op.

One builds pages with “hot” stuff that hopefully attracts lots of viewers. One creates ad-space on these pages and fills it with Google ads. One attracts viewers and promotes the spiked pages by buying $3 Facebook mini-ads for them. The mini-ads are targeted at the most susceptible groups.
A few thousand users will come and look at such pages. Some will ‘like’ the puppy pictures or the rant for or against LGBT and further spread them. Some will click the Google ads. Money then flows into the pockets of the page creator. One can rinse and repeat this scheme forever. Each such page is a small effort for a small revenue. But the scheme is highly scalable and parts of it can be automatized.

Because of the myriad of U.S. sanctions against Russia, the monetization of these business schemes required some creativity. One can easily find the name of a real U.S. person together with the assigned social security number and its date of birth. Those data are enough to open, for example, a Paypal account under a U.S. name. A U.S. customer of the cloaked Russian Internet company could then pay to the Paypal account and the money could be transferred from there to Moscow. These accounts could also be used to buy advertising on Facebook. The person whose data was used to create the account would never learn of it and would have no loss or other damage. Another scheme is to simply pay some U.S. person to open a U.S. bank account and to then hand over the ‘keys’ to that account.

The Justice Department indictment is quite long and detailed. It must have been expensive. If you read it do so with the above in mind. Skip over the assumptions and claims of political interference and digest only the facts. All that is left is, as explained, a commercial marketing scheme.

I will not go into all its detail of the indictment but here are some points that support the above description.

Point 4:

Defendants, posing as US. persons and creating false U.S. personas, operated social media pages and groups designed to attract U.S. audiences. These groups and pages, which addressed divisive US. political and social issues, falsely claimed to be controlled by US. activists when, in fact, they were controlled by Defendants. Defendants also used the stolen identities of real U.S. persons to post on social media accounts. Over time, these social media accounts became Defendants’ means to reach significant numbers of Americans …
Point 10d:

By in or around April 2014, the ORGANIZATION formed a department that went by various names but was at times referred to as the “translator project.” This project focused on the US. population and conducted operations on social media platforms such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. By approximately July 2016, more than eighty ORGANIZATION employees were assigned to the translator project.
(Some U.S. media today made the false claim that $1.25 million per month spent by the company for its U.S. campaign. But Point 11 of the indictment says that the company ran a number of such projects directed at a Russian audience while only the one described in 10d above is aimed at a U.S. audience. All these projects together had a monthly budget of $1.25 million.)

(Point 17, 18 and 19 indict individual persons who have worked for the “translator” project” “to at least in and around [some month] 2014”. It is completely unclear how these persons, who seem to have left the company two years before the U.S. election, are supposed to have anything to do with the claimed “Russian influence” on the U.S. election and the indictment.)

Point 32:

Defendants and their co-conspirators, through fraud and deceit, created hundreds of social media accounts and used them to develop certain fictitious U.S. personas into “leader[s] of public opinion” in the United States.
The indictment then goes on and on describing the “political activities” of the sock-puppet personas. Some posted pro-Hillary slogans, some anti-Hillary stuff, some were pro-Trump, some anti-everyone, some urged not to vote, others to vote for third party candidates. The sock-puppets did not create or post fake news. They posted mainstream media stories.

Some of the personas called for going to anti-Islam rallies while others promoted pro-Islam rallies. The Mueller indictment lists a total of eight rallies. Most of these did not take place at all. No one joined the “Miners For Trump” rallies in Philly and Pittsburgh. A “Charlotte against Trump” march on November 19 – after the election – was attended by one hundred people. Eight people came for a pro-Trump rally in Fort Myers.

The sock-puppets called for rallies to establish themselves as ‘activist’ and ‘leadership’ persona, to generate more online traffic and additional followers. There was, in fact, no overall political trend in what the sock-puppets did. The sole point of all such activities was to create a large total following by having multiple personas which together covered all potential social-political strata.

At Point 86 the indictment turns to Count Two – “Conspiracy to Commit Wire Fraud and Bank Fraud”. The puppeteers opened, as explained above, various Paypal accounts using ‘borrowed’ data.

Then comes the point which confirms the commercial marketing story as laid out above:

Point 95:

Defendants and their co-conspirators also used the accounts to receive money from real U.S. persons in exchange for posting promotions and advertisements on the ORGANIZATION-controlled social media pages. Defendants and their co-conspirators typically charged certain U.S. merchants and U.S. social media sites between 25 and 50 U.S. dollars per post for promotional content on their popular false U.S. persona accounts, including Being Patriotic, Defend the 2nd, and Blacktivist.
There you have it. There was no political point to what the Russian company did. Whatever political slogans one of the company’s sock-puppets posted had only one aim: to increase the number of followers for that sock-puppet. The sole point of creating a diverse army of sock-puppets with large following crowds was to sell the ‘eyeballs’ of the followers to the paying customers of the marketing company.

There were, according to the indictment, eighty people working on the “translator project”. These controlled “hundreds” of sock-puppets online accounts each with a distinct “political” personality. Each of these sock-puppets had a large number of followers – in total several hundred-thousands. Now let’s assume that one to five promotional posts can be sold per day on each of the sock-puppets content streams. The scheme generates several thousand dollars per day ($25 per promo, hundreds of sock-puppets, 1-5 promos per day per sock-puppet). The costs for this were limited to the wages of up to eighty persons in Moscow, many of the temps, of which the highest paid received some $1,000 per month. While the upfront multiyear investment to create and establish the virtual personas was probably significant, this likely was, overall, a profitable business.

Again – this had nothing to do with political influence on the election. The sole point of political posts was to create ‘engagement‘ and a larger number of followers in each potential social-political segment. People who buy promotional posts want these to be targeted at a specific audience. The Russian company could offer whatever audience was needed. It had sock-puppets with a pro-LGBT view and a large following and sock-puppets with anti-LGBT views and a large following. It could provide pro-2nd amendment crowds as well as Jill Stein followers. Each of the sock-puppets had over time generated a group of followers that were like-minded. The entity buying the promotion simply had to choose which group it preferred to address.

The panic of the U.S. establishment over the loss of their preferred candidate created an artificial storm over “Russian influence” and assumed “collusion” with the Trump campaign. (Certain Democrats though, like Adam Schiff, profit from creating a new Cold War through their sponsoring armament companies.)

The Mueller investigation found no “collusion” between anything Russia and the Trump campaign. The indictment does not mention any. The whole “Russian influence” storm is based on a misunderstanding of commercial activities of a Russian marketing company in U.S. social networks.

There is a danger in this. The indictment sets up a new theory of nefarious foreign influence that could be applied to even this blog. As U.S. lawyer Robert Barns explains:

The only thing frightening about this indictment is the dangerous and dumb precedent it could set: foreign nationals criminally prohibited from public expression in the US during elections unless registered as foreign agents and reporting their expenditures to the FEC.

Mueller’s new crime only requires 3 elements: 1) a foreign national; 2) outspoken on US social media during US election, and 3) failed to register as a foreign agent or failed to report receipts/expenditures of speech activity. Could indict millions under that theory.

The legal theory of the indictment for most of the defendants and most of the charges alleges that the “fraud” was simply not registering as a foreign agent or not reporting expenses to the FEC because they were a foreign national expressing views in a US election.
Author Leonid Bershidsky, who writes for Bloomberg, remarks:

“I’m actually surprised I haven’t been indicted. I’m Russian, I was in the U.S. in 2016 and I published columns critical of both Clinton and Trump w/o registering as a foreign agent.”

As most of you will know your author writing this is German. I write pseudo-anonymously for a mostly U.S. audience. My postings are political and during the U.S. election campaign expressed an anti-Hillary view. The blog is hosted on U.S, infrastructure paid for by me. I am not registered as Foreign Agent or with the Federal Election Commission.

Under the theory on which the indictment is based I could also be indicted for a similar “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”.

(Are those of you who kindly donated to this blog co-conspirators?)

When Yevgeni Prigozhin, the hot dog caterer who allegedly owns the internet promotion business, was asked about the indictment he responded:

“The Americans are really impressionable people, they see what they want to see. […] If they want to see the devil, let them see him.”

Syrians are creating “parish councils” to restore grassroots democracy

You may think Syrians are trapped between a rock and a hard place and face a choice between Bashar Al Assad and the jihadists. But the real choice being fought out by Syrians is between violent authoritarianism on the one hand and grassroots democracy on the other. Syrians are creating “parish councils” to help restore civil society.

When Robin Yassin-Kassab interviewed activists, fighters and refugees for his book Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War, he discovered the democratic option is real, even if beleaguered. To the extent that life continues in the liberated but heavily bombed areas – areas independent of both the Assad regime and ISIL – it continues because self-organised local councils are supplying services and aid.

Syrians are creating parish councils to restore grassroots democracy

On 18 July 2017 women and men in Saraqib, eastern Idlib, participated in elections for their local council. According to the election commission 2475 people cast their ballot, 55 percent of eligible voters. Just days earlier, the three candidates had held a lively public debate. This is unheard of in ‘Assad’s Syria’ where free elections have not been held in five decades of dictatorship. And this is the alternative to the regime – self-organization, democracy and local autonomy – not ISIL and not foreign occupation.

Another example is Daraya, a suburb west of Damascus suffering under starvation siege, is run by a council. Its 120 members select executives by vote every six months. The council head is chosen by public election. The council runs schools, a hospital,and a public kitchen, and manages urban agricultural production. Its office supervises the Free Syrian Army militias defending the town. Amid constant bombardment, Daraya’s citizen journalists produce a newspaper, Enab Baladi, which promotes non-violent resistance. In a country once known as a “kingdom of silence”, there are more than 60 independent newspapers and many free radio stations.

And as soon as the bombing eases, people return to the streets with their banners. Recent demonstrations against Jabhat Al Nusra across Idlib province indicate that the Syrian desire for democracy burns as fiercely as ever.

Where possible, the local councils are democratically elected – the first free elections in half a century. Omar Aziz, a Syrian economist and anarchist, provided the germ. In the revolution’s eighth month he published a paper advocating the formation of councils in which citizens could arrange their affairs free of the tyrannical state. Aziz helped set up the first bodies, in suburbs of Damascus. He died in regime detention in 2013, a month before his 64th birthday. But by then, councils had sprouted all over the country.

Some council members were previously involved in the revolution’s original grassroots formations. They were activists, responsible first for coordinating protests and publicity, then for delivering aid and medicine. Other members represented prominent families or tribes, or were professionals selected for specific practical skills.

In regime-controlled areas, councils operate in secret. But in liberated territory people can organise publicly. These are tenacious but fragile experiments. Some are hampered by factionalism. Some are bullied out of existence by jihadists.

Manbij, a northern city, once boasted its own 600-member legislature and 20-member executive, a police force, and Syria’s first independent trade union. Then ISIL seized the grain silos and the democrats were driven out. Today Manbij is called “Little London” for its preponderance of English-accented jihadists.

In some areas the councils appear to signal Syria’s atomisation rather than a new beginning. Christophe Reuter calls it a “revolution of localists” when he describes “village republics””such as Korin, in Idlib province, with its own court and a 10-person council.

But Aziz envisaged councils connecting the people regionally and nationally, and democratic provincial councils now operate in the liberated parts of Aleppo, Idlib and Deraa. In the Ghouta region near Damascus, militia commanders were not permitted to stand as candidates. Fighters were, but only civilians won seats.

In Syria’s three Kurdish-majority areas, collectively known as Rojava, a similar system prevails, though the councils there are known as communes. In one respect they are more progressive than their counterparts elsewhere – 40 per cent of seats are reserved for women. In another, they are more constrained – they work within the larger framework of the PYD, which monopolises control of finances, arms and media.

The elected council members are the only representative Syrians we have. They should be key components in any serious settlement.

In a post-Assad future, local democracy could allow polarised communities to coexist under the Syrian umbrella.

Towns could legislate locally according to their demographic and cultural composition and mood. The alternative to enhanced local control is new borders, new ethnic cleanings, new wars. At the very least, the councils deserve political recognition by the United Nations and others. Council members should be a key presence on the opposition’s negotiating team at any talks.

And the councils deserve protection. Mr Al Assad’s bombs hit the schools, hospitals, bakeries, and residential blocks that the councils are trying desperately to service. If the bombardment were stopped the councils would no longer be limited to survival. They could focus instead on rebuilding Syrian nationhood and further developing popular institutions.

As the US-led invasion of Iraq showed us, only the people themselves can build their democratic structures. And today Syrians are practising democracy, building their own institutions, in the most difficult of circumstances. Their efforts don’t fit in with the easy Assad-or-ISIL narrative, however, and so we rarely deign to notice.

Perhaps Syria looks like a huge, expensive and complicated problem that can only be contained with on-going and continual military action. If this is our only strategy, Syria will fester like an open sore. Perhaps other options are available, if so let’s test them to see if they are feasible.

Andy Black Associates (ABA) provide English parish councils with a specifically designed, low-cost, easy-to-use and customisable WordPress website application, accessed as a cloud service, that enables parish councils to comply with the 2015 Transparency Code and improve engagement with the local community. This type of model can be adapted for Syrian local councils.

Perhaps the UN could set up and manage the cloud service and create a framework where Syrian local councils receive phased financial support for projects to rebuild their local communities in exchange for transparency, local democratic accountability and the creation of local neighbourhood plans. This would help prevent corruption, create local employment and increase grassroots democratic engagement. It could also stem the tide of Syrian refugees into Europe and encourage others to return home to rebuild their country.

The digital transformation of Parish Councils has begun

The digital transformation of Parish Councils has begun. Parish Councils originated in medieval times and are the first level of government for UK citizens. They are now adopting cloud computing services to provide a better service for the local community.

We are proud to be helping this transformation. Andy Black Associates (ABA) is an official G-Cloud 9 (G9) cloud service provider offering a suite of digital services for Parish Councils and local government. The cloud services became available for public sector institutions via the UK Government Digital Marketplace on 22nd May 2017.

ABA provide Parish Councils with a specifically designed, low-cost, easy-to-use and customisable WordPress website template, accessed as a cloud service, that will enable Parish Councils to comply with the 2015 Transparency Code and improve engagement with the local community.

The digital transformation of Parish Councils has begun
Google Maps integration allows virtual walk-throughs of planning and building applications

The Parish Council website is also fully responsive when viewed on a mobile device. This is particularly important as today web pages are more likely to be viewed on mobiles than on PC’s, and this trend will only accelerate. Younger parishioners are overwhelmingly “mobile-first” and this key demographic will be difficult to engage if a Parish Council website is not mobile-friendly and responsive.

 

the digital transformation of parish councils has begun

The software-as-a-service for Parish Councils includes monthly backups, data storage, data security and support – ABA manage all the technical infrastructure. This allows parish clerks to focus on managing the parish paperwork and documentation. When compliance information needs to be published, the service is simple to use and parish clerks can easily upload the information to their sites.

Parish clerks will be able to comply with the Transparency Code and easily publish:

  • All items of expenditure above £100
  • End of year accounts and annual governance statements
  • Internal audit reports
  • List of councillor or member responsibilities
  • Details of public land and building assets
  • The minutes, agendas and meeting papers of formal meetings.

As well as the required compliance data listed above, additional information can also be easily added, including:

  • Land & property planning applications
  • RSS feeds from local government
  • Google Maps
  • Parish history
  • Local services
  • Neighbourhood Development Plans
  • Surveys and polls
  • Email newsletters
  • Social media integration

Combining the required compliance data with complementary parish information makes the websites more engaging. In addition, when parishioners visit the site they will find the navigation and drop-down menus are uncluttered, mobile-friendly and easy-to-use.

The cloud service has been designed to take account of the various levels of network coverage in rural areas and can be accessed on PC’s, laptops and mobile devices connected to 3G, 4G or broadband networks. Parish clerks who live in rural areas without broadband can use a laptop connected via the “hotspot” capabilities of a 3G or 4G mobile device to update and upload content onto the cloud service.

Parish clerks can check the 3G and 4G network coverage for their parish using this free crowdsourced geo-location tool.

the digital transformation of parish councils has begun

The service was developed and iterated over the last year by collaborating with parish clerks, parish councillors and local government officers and is currently being rolled out by the Herefordshire Association of Local Councils, where over 50 Parish Councils have already adopted the cloud service. Some “early adopter” parish clerks are using their newly acquired WordPress skills, learnt by using the ABA video elearning library, to turn the Parish Council websites into community hubs.

Take a look at some examples of our Parish Council websites:

Lynda Wilcox, the Chief Executive of Herefordshire Association of Local Councils, said “The Parish Councils in Hereford using the service have already noticed an increase in the number of parishioners attending meetings, more engagement with older parishioners by email and also more younger parishioners turning up at meetings wanting to get involved in local democracy.”

Mark Millmore, ABA Director, said “Our low-cost and easy-to-use, software-as-a-service (SaaS) can be easily rolled out to any of the 8,356 Parish Councils in England and G-Cloud will be an important route for us to reach these government organisations.

Our software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model will enable Parish Councils to comply with the Transparency Code and improve engagement with the local community. It will also allow significant savings to be made from the UK Government £4.7 million grant managed through the National Association of Local Councils (NALC’s) and its 38 independent County Associations to ensure all 8,356 Parish Councils are compliant with the Transparency Code.

Over the last year we have collaborated with stakeholders to iterate, test and design the service. During this period we have also developed templates, workflows, a cloud server infrastructure and can scale our service to meet client requirements.

The ABA pricing matrix for Parish Council websites being offered to NALC and the 38 independent County Associations that administer the 8,356 Parish Councils is a one off fee of:

  • £500 each for 1-10 websites
  • £400 each for 11-30 websites
  • £350 each for 31-50 websites
  • £300 each for 51-99 websites
  • £250 each for 100+ websites

The one-off fee includes all technical set up on a dedicated cloud server at a secure 1&1 UK datacentre, domain name registration, custom email server, plugins, logo, menus and pages, SEO, loading of last 12 months archive Parish Council content, Google Maps integration and access to a customised Parish Council specific video e-learning library.

After the first year, there is a £100 annual fee for each website that covers support, maintenance, updates, backups and access to a Parish Council specific video e-learning library (available online or as CD’s).

Whilst not a requirement of Transparency Code compliance, if requested, we can also provide SSL certificates (HTTPS) and .gov.uk domain registrations for each website, these additional services are charged at cost price.

Our low-cost and easy-to-use cloud service will enable Parish Councils to comply with the Transparency Code and improve engagement with the local community. As such, we are delighted to have been awarded a place on the G9 Agreement, the latest iteration of G-Cloud, and can’t wait to take advantage of the many opportunities that the initiative offers for both suppliers and government bodies. The digital transformation of parish councils has begun.”

Digital transformation is not just for parish councils, soon every citizen in Herefordshire and Gloucestershire will benefit from Fastershire.

Fastershire is a partnership between Herefordshire Council and Gloucestershire County Council to bring faster broadband to the two counties, with funding from central government’s Broadband Delivery UK matched by the local authorities.

Phase 1 of the project, in partnership with BT, will see around 90% of Gloucestershire and Herefordshire having access to fibre broadband, with all premises in the project area being able to access a minimum of 2Mbps.

Phase 2 of the project will extend fibre coverage further across both counties to make ultrafast speeds available to over 6,500 of the most difficult to reach rural homes and businesses.

the digital transformation of parish councils has begun

The ultimate aim is that by 2018 there will be access to fast broadband for all who need it. Fastershire is not just about technology. The project also includes social and digital inclusion activities, and an extensive ‘Business Support’ programme, designed to help small and medium size businesses enhance their digital skills and use fibre broadband to grow their businesses and be more competitive.

To help the small businesses of Herefordshire and Gloucestershire capitalise on this opportunity, ABA can also provide low-cost, easy-to-use and customisable WordPress ecommerce website templates, accessed as a cloud service. An example of the ecommerce website template is being used by Pengethley Farm Shop.

the digital transformation of parish councils has begun

Small businesses in Herefordshire and Gloucestershire using our ecommerce cloud service will also be able to take advantage of the ABA digital transformation platform to drive business and generate revenue.

It is expected that Fastershire will help to boost the local economy by £420m over the next ten years.

Fastershire will revolutionise the way that people of all ages across Herefordshire and Gloucestershire participate in democracy, work, learn and play, and will benefit generations to come.

the digital transformation of parish councils has begun

The “parish council” model for local democracy can also be used as a template for nation-building after war or revolution.

For enquires about the parish council and ecommerce cloud services contact Mark Millmore on 07891108154

For enquires about the digital transformation platform and digital training contact Andy Black on  07881 314570

Additional information:

G-Cloud is a Crown Commercial Service (CCS) initiative to encourage public sector adoption of cloud services by connecting government organisations with providers of all sizes in a secure and open environment. The CCS acts on behalf of the Crown to drive savings for the taxpayer and improve the quality of commercial and procurement activity across both local and central government.

To qualify for inclusion in G9, organisations need to prove that they are a suitable and secure potential partner for government technology projects. They must be prepared to list the capabilities of their products, along with indicative pricing. As a result, G9 provides public sector bodies with an open, secure and transparent digital marketplace in which to search for cloud solutions.

It also provides new business opportunities to businesses that pass the checks required to qualify for G9 status. Crown Commercial Service suppliers are given an opportunity to advertise their services to a wide range of interested public sector bodies in a competitive environment. Since it became available in 2012, UK government organisations have placed billions of pounds’ worth of orders through the service with most orders being won by SME’s.

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy – Interview with Amina Maikori

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

He is a Director of Andy Black Associates, a London based Digital Media firm. He began his career in Film, Television and Theatre before making the switch from traditional analogue media to digital media-that’s close to an impressive thirty years ago! Andy’s message on his website is a constant reminder to visitors that having digital presence is profitable for all businesses:

‘Are you ready for the Digital Economy?’ It says.

Those who have attended Andy’s training courses know that he is very practical in his teaching methods with great insights on ways to manage a fast growing numbers of digital channels. Andy has a process: he tries and then tests the latest apps and digital platforms before introducing them to you.

The digital economy is huge. Think Konga, think Dealdey don’t forget Amazon or eBay. Part of world globalization includes the luxury of getting across to people, opportunities and products regardless of distance, language , time or even business type.

Here’s an interview I did of Andy about three weeks ago. He tells you just how relevant Digital Media is to you and how you can own it.

Amina: Thanks for agreeing to do this interview. Could  you start off by telling me a little bit about yourself?

Andy: I am Andy Black, a 50 something digital consultant, I have been running my own digital consultancy for 3 years and have been working in the technology sector for over 25 years.

In the 1970’s I was a pupil at Emanuel School in London where my contemporaries included Sir Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the web, Sir Sebastian Wood, UK Ambassador in Germany and Matthew Taylor, Chief Executive of the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA).

In the early 1980’s I was a student at the Bristol Old Vic Theatre School where I received practical training in film, TV, radio and acting. My contemporaries at Bristol included Daniel Day-Lewis, Miranda Richardson and Samantha Bond – in this sort of company I soon realised my limitations and became an expert in spear carrying.

I worked professionally in film, TV and theatre for 2 years before joining a Soho video production company in 1987 that was launching the first analogue to digital film tech – that was 30 years ago!

Since then I have worked in data analysis, information services, search software, intelligence gathering, digital marketing & content creation. I am divorced, happily single and have a 28 year old son who is getting married next year. I look forward to being a digital granddad.

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

Andy (left) worked in film, TV and theatre for 2 years – here appearing as Oberon in a 1983 production of Shakespeare’s A Midsummer Nights Dream at the Bristol Old Vic with Lisa Bowerman as Titania and Tony Howes as Puck 

Amina: Digital grandad! That would an interesting title, definitely. When and why did you make the transition from traditional to digital media?

Andy: My transition from traditional analogue media to digital media occurred in 1987 when I started working for TeleTape Video Ltd. They introduced the first analogue to digital video display technology to the UK, and I joined a team of 4 young edgy techie creatives who started to play with and evolve commercial services with the new technology. Lots of late nights, laughter, hard work and busy weekends.

I became a digital obsessive and tried out things like subliminal messaging and building digital sculptures with monitors that displayed video & information. We were involved in lots of interesting projects including the launch of Sky TV, video displays at the Conservative Party conference and lots of air and defence trade shows. I will always remember working on the the launch of SkyTV at the National Theatre, the highlight was Rupert Murdoch slowly walking through a swirling sea of dry ice engulfing two of our huge videowall sculptures as he launched Sky TV to the assembled global media – you can imagine the pressure on me in the control room!!

In 1990 I was headhunted to join Perfect Information a City start-up, where digital was used to scan original company documents and newspaper cuttings to create a unique image based real-time information service for City clients such as Goldman Sachs, Cazenove and Kroll Associates – I learnt on the job about data management, ISDN, metadata, information, RAID, internet, broadband, cloud computing, telecoms, optical storage – as well as how the City and M&A teams operate.

In 1996 I joined Excalibur Technologies, a US based advanced search software company, where I worked on projects including web crawling for Factiva, advanced search software for ProQuest and the Excalibur rapid rebuttal database for the Labour Party. In many ways Twitter and automated bots have now democratised rapid rebuttal. Unfortunately it has also led to memes, fake news and algorithmic manipulation being used as a type of information warfare to distort traditional news flows and disrupt public opinion. It is fascinating to watch the analogue to digital revolution.

Amina: It must have been exciting to be part of that revolution. What do you find is the major difference between the two?

Andy: A digital file is cheap, made once and can be easily stored, copied and also shared an infinite number of times. A printed book is expensive to print and also difficult to share or store. The economics of digital totally disrupts any sector it touches. Every business needs a digital transformation strategy otherwise they risk being Blockbuster when their customers want Netflix.

Amina: For a lot of people, digital or social media is what they do on the go with no specific time scheduled for it. Your case obviously is different, perhaps with more structure. What is a typical day like for you?

Andy: I am connected 24/7 and regularly monitor Twitter for news, Facebook for news from friends, LinkedIn for news from connections, Twitter Lists for expert news and Google Custom Search for key website content for projects i am working on. I also use extensive Boolean search operators and scripts to retrieve deep web information that is not indexed by Google. When not working at a client site or on a specific project, my typical day is as follows:

At 08.00 am I normally start by checking Twitter for trends and news – I then curate interesting stories regarding the digital economy and use scheduling tools so my tweets appear at the optimum time for my followers, which is between 1pm-4pm – I normally send 5 tweets and 1 LinkedIn share a day. I use Twitter saved searches, Twitter Lists, Google Custom Search and Hootsuite to make this fast and efficient.

After this I monitor trending topics and hashtags to see if I can “newsjack” a relevant trend and share a link to my website – this is a very effective tactic for growing followers and increasing traffic to my website. I normally complete this by 10.00am.

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

More web pages are now viewed on a mobile than a PC – is your content & website mobile friendly?

Then I login to my website, check emails from website visitors, check my SEO, Google Analytics, Adwords and Woorank to make sure my pages and ads are all functioning. A key daily task is monitoring for any changes in the Google, Facebook and Twitter algorithms, these three companies are now the gatekeepers for news and content and any changes they make can have a dramatic effect on content marketing and digital campaigns. I finish this by 10.30.

From 10.30am to 12.00 i do my admin, other business emails, proposals, Skype calls with my associates. In the afternoons I attend meetings or go to the Frontline Club to work.

In the evening I normally do 1-2 hours reading, OSINT deep web research or try out new software/apps. Google only indexes 5% of the Internet so an understanding of information resources on the deep web is absolutely vital, otherwise you may make “fake decisions”.

Amina: The digital sphere is flooded with all kinds of apps and social media channels, if you’re an outsider it’s a bit hard to decide on which one to embrace or ignore. Which 5 platforms would you say are an absolute must for organizations or businesses and why?

Andy: Whilst there are regional and demographic differences, I think the current 5 key platforms are;

  • Facebook (Page, Live, analytics, ads, Messenger)
  • Twitter (ads, analytics, Periscope, lists, geo-location search, advanced search)
  • LinkedIn (ads, SlideShare, posts, advanced search – and soon Skype)
  • Hootsuite (social media management/engagement, Hootlet, apps, scheduling)
  • Website (SEO, mobile responsive, AdWords, blog, YouTube, navigation, ecommerce, Skype)

Your website should be the hub, with social channels linking to it.

Amina: Let’s take a look at the digital economy. I notice it’s the first thing that pops up on your page. More specifically, we see the question ‘ Are you ready for the digital economy?’ Why is that such an important thing?

Andy: Digital technology is reshaping traditional industry, especially those sectors that rely on direct engagement with consumers (for example, marketing, PR and design) and technological innovation (for example. science and high tech). Education, however, is the sector with the lowest proportion of digital businesses.

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

Countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil are using digital and mobile to transform their economies.

Digital is ubiquitous. Mobile devices are everywhere and countries like India, Nigeria, Brazil are using digital and mobile to transform their economies. This represents huge opportunities for collaboration, trade and knowledge sharing, organisations that fail to grasp these opportunities will go out of business .

Amina: Finally, what do businesses and organizations need to do to get ready for the digital economy?

Andy: They need to move away from hierarchical structures to self-organising networks.

what andy black can tell you about succeeeding in the digital economy

What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

Move from hierarchical structures to self-organising networks.

Take a look at how the Labour Party used crowdfunding, crowdsourcing bots and AI in the 2017 UK General Election!

If you want to know more about the Digital Economy follow  Andy Black Associates on Twitter ‪@AndyBlacz ‬.

You can also access their free Advanced digital toolkit here.

Finally , check out how sales work in the old days versus now. Yes, just look at that for a moment. Or two.What Andy Black can tell you about succeeding in a Digital Economy

This interview originally appeared on Amina Maikori’s blog.

Andy Black Associates awarded G-Cloud 9 supplier agreement for UK Govt

Andy Black Associates has been awarded and officially listed as a G-Cloud 9 (G9) cloud hosting service provider for its suite of digital services for Parish Councils and local government. G9 services became available on the Digital Marketplace on 22nd May 2017.

The digital transformation of Parish Councils has begun. Parish Councils originated in medieval times and are the first level of government for UK citizens. Andy Black Associates provide Parish Councils with a low-cost, easy-to-use and customisable hosted WordPress website template, specifically designed for Parish Councils, that will enable them to improve engagement with the local community, comply with the 2015 Transparency Code and provide a better service for parishioners. The hosted website is also fully responsive when viewed on a mobile device.

The hosted cloud software-as-a-service for Parish Councils includes monthly backups, data storage, data security, support and access to a streamed video e-learning library that enables Parish Council members to easily learn how to customise their sites, enabling value added services such as how to add the minutes of meetings, how to create an email newsletter, how to integrate social media or how to add YouTube content.

The service was developed and iterated over the last year by collaborating with parish clerks, parish councillors and local government officers and is currently being rolled out by the Hereford Association of Local Councils, where over 50 Parish Councils have already adopted the cloud service. Some “early adopters” in this group are starting to develop their Parish Council websites into community hubs.

andy black associates awarded G-Cloud 9
Google Maps integration allows virtual walk-throughs of building applications

Lynda Wilcox, the Chief Executive of Hereford Association of Local Councils, said “The Parish Councils in Hereford using the service have already noticed an increase in the number of parishioners attending meetings, more engagement with older parishioners by email and also more younger parishioners turning up at meetings wanting to get involved in local democracy.”

Mark Millmore, ABA Director of Hosted Services, said “Our low-cost and easy-to-use hosted website template and hosted cloud service can be easily rolled out to any of the 8,356 Parish Councils in England and G-Cloud will be an important route for us to reach these government organisations.

Our software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model will enable Parish Councils to improve their service to the local community and allow significant savings from the Central Government budget allocated to the National Association of Local Councils (NALC’s) and its 38 independent County Associations for Transparency Code compliance for each of the 8,356 Parish Councils under their administration.

The ABA pricing matrix for Parish Council websites being offered to NALC and to each of the 38 independent County Associations is a one-off fee of £500 each for 1-10 websites, £400 each for 11-30 websites, £300 each for 31-50 websites, £250 each for 50+ websites and £200 each for 100+ websites, after the first year there is a £100 annual fee for each website that covers support, maintenance updates and backups. Our low-cost and easy-to-use cloud service will help Parish Councils comply with the Transparency Code and provide a better service to the local community.

Take a look at some examples of our Parish Council websites:

As such, we are delighted to have been awarded a place on the G9 Agreement, the latest iteration of G-Cloud, and can’t wait to take advantage of the many opportunities that the initiative offers for both suppliers and government bodies.”

Mark Millmore can be contacted on 07891108154 for further information.

G-Cloud is a Crown Commercial Service (CCS) initiative to encourage public sector adoption of cloud services by connecting government organisations with providers of all sizes in a secure and open environment. The CCS acts on behalf of the Crown to drive savings for the taxpayer and improve the quality of commercial and procurement activity across both local and central government.

To qualify for inclusion in G9, organisations need to prove that they are a suitable and secure potential partner for government technology projects. They must be prepared to list the capabilities of their products, along with indicative pricing. As a result, G9 provides public sector bodies with an open, secure and transparent digital marketplace in which to search for cloud solutions.

It also provides new business opportunities to businesses that pass the checks required to qualify for G9 status. Crown Commercial Service suppliers are given an opportunity to advertise their services to a wide range of interested public sector bodies in a competitive environment. Since it became available in 2012, UK government organisations have placed billions of pounds’ worth of orders through the service with most orders being won by SME’s.

What exactly is Open Source Intelligence and what are the benefits?

What exactly is Open Source Intelligence and what are the benefits?

Watch ABA Associate Arno Reuser talk about Open Source Intelligence in this video blog.

Arno is a professional librarian and information scientist with more than 30 years experience in information handling and processing. He was the founder of the Open Source Intelligence Bureau for the Dutch Defense Intelligence and Security Service (DISS) and currently holds the position of Senior Policy Advisor for OSINT and Cyber at the Dutch Ministry of Defence.

Arno was responsible for migrating the Dutch military intelligence library from an archival to a discovery capability. It involved efficiently extracting information from incoming streams of raw data and sharing relevant parts of the information with a virtual team of Dutch open source intelligence experts. In addition, the team used Arno’s search methodology to do research and collaboration using open source software, this enabled rapid analysis of incoming information and a fast evolution of it into intelligence. This innovative, low-cost and highly effective methodology inspired many EU, NATO and UN intelligence agencies.

Arno’s expertise is to design and use systems that can translate information requirements into actionable intelligence. Or, in other words, find pinpoint answers to questions, and to design and run training courses about this for govt and private sector clients.

In recognition for his contribution to the Intelligence Community, Arno was awarded the Golden Candle Award by OSS.net in Washington D.C.in 2003 and the Lifetime Award in 2004. He was nominated for Information Professional of the Year in 2010.

In 2018 Arno was appointed as one of the Technical Commissioners of the ITNJ Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Human Trafficking and Child Sex Abuse.

what is open source intelligence